Forecasting the future: Part I

DUE: 02.14.15 @ 11:59PM


This is what I need you to do –>
 Review the Post 1 forecast scenario below. Are all of the eight steps included? Add some detail to one of the eight steps in the forecasting method.

 

 

Post 1: Describe a situation where it would be appropriate to use forecasting. Be sure to include all the necessary steps to develop the forecast and why you would use the forecast you chose. Please be thorough and provide enough detail.

Response: A situation where forecasting would be appropriate to use is to come up with loan promotions. Just like everything else in retail loans are seasonal even though they are offered all year round. There is usually an influx of application during spring time which people usually use for home improvement and vacation and then again during fall for tuition and christmas presents.
Based on the fact that we see year after year that people apply during an specific time period through out the year, the forecasting technique to come up with numbers for loan promotions would be Time series method.  Looking at this data over time and the changes that experience the demand on loans depending on the season, allows us to have better decision making.

This is what I need you to do –> Review the Post 2 forecast scenario below. Add depth to the forecasting scheme by suggesting another application of the forecast in the profession. What other way could we use these forecasted measurement?

Post 2: Describe a situation where it would be appropriate to use forecasting. Be sure to include all the necessary steps to develop the forecast and why you would use the forecast you chose. Please be thorough and provide enough detail.

Response: Quantitative forecasting uses past numbers as its basis. This type of forecasting normally includes the effects of the leading indicator series and other complex economic data. The leading indicator series includes information on stock prices, unemployment insurance claims and the money supply. Although forecasting that uses such data is highly mathematical, it makes a crucial assumption that history predicts the future. If market conditions change unexpectedly, these methods become less accurate.

I used to be a stockbroker, quantitative forecasting are good indicators, similar to predictions on whether certain stocks will go up or down (increase or decrease in value). We used to use to forms of indicators, fundamental research and stock forecast algorithms.

Fundamental Research is a mandatory method for any investor. Fundamental Research is a well-rounded stock prediction method for all the data that actually matters are taken into consideration while determining the true value of a stock A company may generate healthy revenue but owing to huge expenses, they may not be highly profitable.

Stock Forecast Algorithms are aimed at making the best use of the right time, right price and the right quantity of stocks that must be traded. The Algorithm in place helps a trader to forecast the time at which the price would be the most favorable to either buy or sell a stock. The system predicts absolutely on numbers and has not even remotely affected by popular emotions.

Keep in mind, forecasting is just predictions, just like in the stock market and quantitative forecasting, it is up to the client to eventually decide what is the best option, invest aggressively or low risk.

 

References:

http://iknowfirst.com/2-stock-forecasting-methods-you-should-use

http://smallbusiness.chron.com/importance-limitations-forecasting-36164.html

Document Requirements:

Use standard 12-point font size

MS Word Document 

3/4-1 page paper PER Post – there’s two post(Nothing less then 3/4 of a page and nothing more then 1-page necessary)

1-2 sources in APA citation PER Post – there’s two post(I willn’t need anymore then 3 sources for sure)

Thorough Response is a must!!

And NO plagiarism!!

 

*Homework Field of Study: Business Statistics

If you don’t have any expertise in this area of study please don’t waste my time sending a handshake.