Summary
2 period moving average
Forecasting | Moving averages – 2 period moving average | |||||
Num pds | 3 | |||||
Data Elissa Torres: Forecasting: Submodel = 11; Problem size @ 5 by 3 |
Forecasts and Error Analysis | |||||
Period | Demand | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err |
Period 1 | 38 | |||||
Period 2 | 40 | |||||
Period 3 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 04.88% |
Period 4 | 37 | 40.5 | -3.5 | 3.5 | 12.25 | 09.46% |
Period 5 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 13.33% |
Total | 4.5 | 11.5 | 52.25 | 27.67% | ||
Average | 1.5 | 3.8333333333 | 17.4166666667 | 09.22% | before forecast | |
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||
Period 6 | 50 | 47.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 6.25 | 05.00% |
Period 7 | 44 | Average | after forecast period 6 | |||
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE |
Forecasting
Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Forecast 39 40.5 39Time
Value
Forecasting
Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Forecast 39 40.5 39Time
Value
Enter the past demands in the data area
Forecasting
Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Forecast 39 40.5 39Time
Value
3 period moving average
Forecasting | Moving averages – 3 period moving average | |||||
Num pds | 3 | |||||
Data Elissa Torres: Forecasting: Submodel = 11; Problem size @ 5 by 3 |
Forecasts and Error Analysis | |||||
Period | Demand | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err |
Period 1 | 38 | |||||
Period 2 | 40 | |||||
Period 3 | 41 | |||||
Period 4 | 37 | 39.6666666667 | -2.6666666667 | 2.6666666667 | 7.1111111111 | 07.21% |
Period 5 | 45 | 39.3333333333 | 5.6666666667 | 5.6666666667 | 32.1111111111 | 12.59% |
Total | 3 | 8.3333333333 | 39.2222222222 | 19.80% | ||
Average | 1.5 | 4.1666666667 | 19.6111111111 | 09.90% | ||
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||
Period 6 | 50 | 44 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 12.00% |
Period 7 | 44 | Average | after forecast period 6 | |||
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE |
Forecasting
Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Forecast 39.666666666666664 39.333333333333336Time
Value
Forecasting
Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Forecast 39.666666666666664 39.333333333333336Time
Value
Enter the past demands in the data area
Forecasting
Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Forecast 39.666666666666664 39.333333333333336Time
Value
Exponential Smoothing
Forecasting | Exponential smoothing | |||||
Alpha | 0.3 | |||||
Data Elissa Torres: Forecasting: Submodel = 13; Problem size @ 5 by 1 |
Forecasts and Error Analysis | |||||
Period | Demand | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err |
Period 1 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
Period 2 | 40 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5.00% |
Period 3 | 41 | 38.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 5.76 | 5.85% |
Period 4 | 37 | 39.32 | -2.32 | 2.32 | 5.3824 | 6.27% |
Period 5 | 45 | 38.624 | 6.376 | 6.376 | 40.653376 | 14.17% |
Total | 8.456 | 13.096 | 55.795776 | 31.29% | ||
Average | 1.6912 | 2.6192 | 11.1591552 | 06.26% | Before forecast | |
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||
SE | 4.3126084914 | |||||
Period 6 | 50 | 40.5368 | 9.4632 | 9.4632 | 89.55215424 | 18.93% |
Period 7 | 44 | Average | after forecast period 6 | |||
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE |
Forecasting
38 40 41 37 45 38 38 38.6 39.32 38.624000000000002Time
Value
Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis for all rows above the starting forecast.
Forecasting
38 40 41 37 45 38 38 38.6 39.32 38.624000000000002Time
Value
Trend Adj Exp Smoothing
Forecasting | Trend adjusted exponential smoothing | |||||||
Alpha | 0.3 | |||||||
Beta | 0.7 | |||||||
Data Elissa Torres: Forecasting: Submodel = 14; Problem size @ 5 by 1 |
Forecasts and Error Analysis | |||||||
Period | Demand | Smoothed Forecast, Ft | Smoothed Trend, Tt | Forecast Including Trend, FITt | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err |
Period 1 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 00.00% | |
Period 2 | 40 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 05.00% |
Period 3 | 41 | 38.6 | 0.42 | 39.02 | 1.98 | 1.98 | 3.9204 | 04.83% |
Period 4 | 37 | 39.614 | 0.8358 | 40.4498 | -3.4498 | 3.4498 | 11.90112004 | 09.32% |
Period 5 | 45 | 39.41486 | 0.111342 | 39.526202 | 5.473798 | 5.473798 | 29.9624645448 | 0.1216399556 |
Next period | 41.1683414 | 1.26083958 | 42.42918098 | |||||
Total | 6.003998 | 12.903598 | 49.7839845848 | 31.32% | ||||
41.1683414 | Average | 1.2007996 | 2.5807196 | 9.956796917 | 06.26% | |||
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||||
SE | 4.0736545666 | |||||||
Next period | 42.050929106 | 0.6178113942 | 42.6687405002 | |||||
Total | After forecast | |||||||
Average | ||||||||
Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||||
SE | 0 |
Forecasting
Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Smoothed Forecast, Ft 38 38 38.599999999999994 39.61399999999999 39.41485999999999Time
Value
Enter alpha and beta (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete the error analysis for all rows above the starting forecast.
Forecasting
Demand 38 40 41 37 45 Smoothed Forecast, Ft 38 38 38.599999999999994 39.61399999999999 39.41485999999999Time
Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
A
B
C
D
E
Forecasting
Trend adjusted exponential smoothing
Alpha
0.3
Beta
0.7
Data
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period
Demand
Smoothe
d
Forecast,
F
t
Smoothe
d Trend,
T
t
Enter alpha and beta (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column
then enter a starting forecast. If the starting forecast is not in the first period then delete